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Süper Lig Turkyie Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

81
Matches w/ Odds
$10
Stake Per Bet
+31.11%
Best: Away Underdog
-31.05%
Worst: Draw Bet

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for Süper Lig Turkey. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

MarketBetsWinsWin %StakedReturnP&LROIBest Str.Worst Str.Trend
Home Bet813948.15%$810$879.8+$69.80+8.62%46
Draw Bet811417.28%$810$558.5−$251.50-31.05%221
Away Bet812834.57%$810$788.8−$21.20-2.62%48
Over 2.5814758.02%$810$854.3+$44.30+5.47%55
Under 2.5813441.98%$810$810.6+$0.60+0.07%55
BTTS Yes813745.68%$810$652.8−$157.20-19.41%55
Home Favorite573256.14%$570$583+$13.00+2.28%83
Away Underdog28932.14%$280$367.1+$87.10+31.11%37
Favorite814555.56%$810$823.6+$13.60+1.68%115
Underdog812227.16%$810$845+$35.00+4.32%211

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

MarketBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Home Bet81+$69.80+8.62%−$28.09-15.44%+$73.82+9.13%
Draw Bet81−$251.50-31.05%−$42.26-84.84%−$235.27-27.49%
Away Bet81−$21.20-2.62%−$43.59-30.7%+$69.94+8.01%
Over 2.581+$44.30+5.47%−$7.02-10.09%+$46.58+5.73%
Under 2.581+$0.60+0.07%−$5.69-2.29%−$10.05-1.17%
BTTS Yes81−$157.20-19.41%−$26.91-92.54%−$160.63-19.35%
Home Favorite57+$13.00+2.28%+$8.11+16.19%+$37.32+6.56%
Away Underdog28+$87.10+31.11%−$23.79-20.13%+$127.57+43.75%
Favorite81+$13.60+1.68%+$20.18+37.34%+$41.20+5.13%
Underdog81+$35.00+4.32%−$54.56-32.61%+$135.01+15.37%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

By Team Bets

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

TeamBetsWinsWin %P&LROI
Amed9666.67%+$78.70+87.44%
Kocaelispor9555.56%+$59.10+65.67%
Trabzonspor9666.67%+$44.10+49%
Gençlerbirliği9222.22%+$40.10+44.56%
Alanyaspor9333.33%+$29.10+32.33%
Beşiktaş9666.67%+$20.70+23%
Galatasaray9777.78%+$15.80+17.56%
Kasımpaşa9444.44%+$12.50+13.89%
Çorum9444.44%+$9.40+10.44%
Erzurumspor FK9444.44%+$7.50+8.33%
Rizespor9333.33%−$10.90-12.11%
Fenerbahçe9555.56%−$18.50-20.56%
Gaziantep FK9222.22%−$22.80-25.33%
Göztepe9333.33%−$27.50-30.56%
Konyaspor9222.22%−$35.70-39.67%
İstanbul Başakşehir9333.33%−$42.50-47.22%
Samsunspor9111.11%−$54.00-60%
Eyüpspor9111.11%−$56.50-62.78%

PPG Model

18
Teams
1.41
League Avg PPG
1.08
Home Factor
λ=0.85
WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0
10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for Süper Lig Turkey. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
PPG Favorite (1×2)613049.18%+$39.60+6.49%
PPG Home Pick281657.14%+$3.10+1.11%
PPG Away Pick331442.42%+$36.50+11.06%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)693652.17%+$83.50+12.1%
PPG Value (fair < market)712230.99%−$105.30-14.83%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:
Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:
Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:
Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:
Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:
Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
PPG Favorite (1×2)61+$39.60+6.49%−$39.43-41.56%+$61.50+9.53%
PPG Home Pick28+$3.10+1.11%−$15.92-41.48%+$32.21+10.58%
PPG Away Pick33+$36.50+11.06%−$18.87-23.87%+$18.53+5.55%
WPPG Favorite (1×2)69+$83.50+12.1%−$32.97-31.5%+$106.19+14.42%
PPG Value (fair < market)71−$105.30-14.83%−$40.04-17.37%−$51.59-7.94%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair OddsResult✓
26 OctGalatasaray vs FenerbahçeGalatasaray47.9%2.092 – 1✓
26 OctBeşiktaş vs İstanbul BaşakşehirBeşiktaş52.04%1.922 – 0✓
26 OctRizespor vs TrabzonsporTrabzonspor47.67%2.13 – 4✓
25 OctGöztepe vs ÇorumÇorum44.13%2.272 – 0✗
25 OctKonyaspor vs GençlerbirliğiGençlerbirliği47.4%2.112 – 0✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

DateMatchPPG PickProbFair Odds
30 OctKonyaspor vs GalatasarayGalatasaray63.93%1.56
31 OctErzurumspor FK vs Çorum***0%0
31 OctKocaelispor vs Rizespor
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31 OctFenerbahçe vs Göztepe
01 NovAmed vs Eyüpspor

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

TeamPPG ↓H-PPGA-PPGWPPGvs AvgStrength
1Galatasaray2.442.62.252.53+1.03
2Amed2.2231.252.36+0.81
3Trabzonspor2.1131.42.37+0.70
4Beşiktaş230.751.95+0.59
5Kasımpaşa1.781.521.91+0.37
6Fenerbahçe1.782.251.41.79+0.37
7Kocaelispor1.672.251.21.61+0.26
8Erzurumspor FK1.562.2511.92+0.15
9Çorum1.441.51.41.54+0.03
10Alanyaspor1.331.251.41.1-0.08
11Göztepe1.3311.61.78-0.08
12İstanbul Başakşehir1.2220.251.23-0.19
13Rizespor1.11020.81-0.30
14Konyaspor0.891.40.251.15-0.52
15Gaziantep FK0.890.41.50.6-0.52
16Gençlerbirliği0.8910.750.56-0.52
17Samsunspor0.440.20.750.24-0.97
18Eyüpspor0.330.600.22-1.08

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Göztepe
PPG: 1.33WPPG: 1.78Gap: ↑ 0.45
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Erzurumspor FK
PPG: 1.56WPPG: 1.92Gap: ↑ 0.36
Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising
Gençlerbirliği
PPG: 0.89WPPG: 0.56Gap: ↓ 0.33
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Rizespor
PPG: 1.11WPPG: 0.81Gap: ↓ 0.30
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG
Gaziantep FK
PPG: 0.89WPPG: 0.6Gap: ↓ 0.29
Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe

Galatasaray PPG
2.38
vs
Fenerbahçe PPG
2
P(Galatasaray) = 2.38 / (2.38+2) × 1.08
= 0.543 × 1.08 = 47.9% → Fair odds 2.09
P(Draw) = 0.268 × (1 − |diff|)
= 22.52% → Fair odds 4.44
P(Fenerbahçe) = 1 − 47.9% − 22.52%
= 29.58% → Fair odds 3.38

Poisson / Correct Score

Select Match

0.72
Home xG (λ)
0.98
Away xG (λ)
1.70
Total E[goals]
1.67
League Avg Home
1.23
League Avg Away

Dixon-Coles Score Matrix — Konyaspor vs Galatasaray

29 Oct · Each cell shows the probability of that exact scoreline. Dixon-Coles corrected (ρ = -0.13). · Upcoming

H \ A0123456
019.9%16.2%8.8%2.9%0.7%0.1%0.0%
111.5%14.6%6.3%2.1%0.5%0.1%0.0%
24.7%4.6%2.3%0.7%0.2%0.0%0.0%
31.1%1.1%0.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
40.2%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
50.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
60.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Most likely High Medium Low

Derived Markets

Home Win
24.27%
Fair odds: 4.12
Draw
36.97%
Fair odds: 2.7
Away Win
38.75%
Fair odds: 2.58
Over 0.580.05%/ Under 19.95%Fair: 1.25
Over 1.552.35%/ Under 47.65%Fair: 1.91
Over 2.524.27%/ Under 75.73%Fair: 4.12
Over 3.59.31%/ Under 90.69%Fair: 10.74
Over 4.52.95%/ Under 97.05%Fair: 33.86
BTTS Yes33.74%Fair: 2.96
BTTS No66.26%Fair: 1.51

Correct Score — Top 12

10-0
19.95%D
20-1
16.23%A
31-1
14.57%D
41-0
11.48%H
50-2
8.77%A
61-2
6.32%A
72-0
4.74%H
82-1
4.64%H
90-3
2.87%A
102-2
2.27%D
111-3
2.06%A
123-0
1.14%H

Dixon-Coles vs Plain Poisson

Where the low-score correction adds value

Plain Poisson
P(0-0) = 18.3%
P(1-0) = 13.2%
P(0-1) = 17.9%
P(1-1) = 12.9%
✗ Underestimates 0-0, 1-0, 0-1
Dixon-Coles (ρ correction)
P(0-0) = 19.9% (+1.7%)
P(1-0) = 11.5% (-1.7%)
P(0-1) = 16.2% (-1.7%)
P(1-1) = 14.6% (+1.7%)
✓ Fixes low-score underestimation
💡 Why does this matter? Draws in football are dominated by 0-0 and 1-1. Plain Poisson underprices these by 15–20%. Dixon-Coles corrects this, generating better ROI on draw markets.

Dixon-Coles Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Poisson/Dixon-Coles model — xG computed only from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)421842.86%−$40.30-9.6%
DC Home Pick (>50%)181477.78%+$87.10+48.39%
DC Away Pick (>50%)16956.25%+$9.80+6.13%
DC Draw (>28%)15213.33%−$79.30-52.87%
DC Over 2.5 Value14964.29%+$23.50+16.79%
DC BTTS Value8225%−$45.00-56.25%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Dixon-Coles bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
DC Value (1X2 edge > 3%)42−$40.30-9.6%−$57.68-68.29%+$35.38+8.46%
DC Home Pick (>50%)18+$87.10+48.39%+$50.80+30.34%+$67.32+39.07%
DC Away Pick (>50%)16+$9.80+6.13%−$19.45-49.24%+$45.83+28.45%
DC Draw (>28%)15−$79.30-52.87%$0.000%−$78.15-50.92%
DC Over 2.5 Value14+$23.50+16.79%+$8.18+13.63%+$18.34+12.74%
DC BTTS Value8−$45.00-56.25%$0.000%−$46.67-56.73%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

TeamAtt (H)Def (H)Att (A)Def (A)H GPA GP
Fenerbahçe2.40.811.140.4845
Trabzonspor1.950.21.460.8445
Amed1.680.491.221.0554
Galatasaray1.320.981.630.954
Göztepe0.91.422.111.0845
Çorum0.90.811.951.3245
Beşiktaş1.680.490.811.0554
Kasımpaşa1.050.810.980.645
İstanbul Başakşehir1.320.810.21.3554
Rizespor0.452.031.30.645
Kocaelispor0.90.410.810.8445
Gaziantep FK0.361.461.220.954
Alanyaspor0.60.810.810.8445
Erzurumspor FK0.60.810.650.9645
Samsunspor0.62.440.610.954
Gençlerbirliği0.721.140.21.6554
Konyaspor0.480.490.410.954
Eyüpspor0.241.4602.154

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:
Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:
Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:
Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 32. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Galatasaray
1582
2Amed
1564
3Trabzonspor
1562
4Beşiktaş
1540
5Kasımpaşa
1539
6Fenerbahçe
1534
7Erzurumspor FK
1520
8Kocaelispor
1517
9Göztepe
1513
10Çorum
1504
11Alanyaspor
1496
12İstanbul Başakşehir
1486
13Rizespor
1469
14Konyaspor
1464
15Gençlerbirliği
1450
16Gaziantep FK
1448
17Samsunspor
1414
18Eyüpspor
1399

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo DiffP(Higher wins)Fair OddsTypical Matchup
050.0%2.00Evenly matched
5057.1%1.75Mid vs mid-lower
10064.0%1.56Top-8 vs bottom-8
15070.3%1.42Top-4 vs relegation
20076.0%1.32Leader vs bottom half
25080.8%1.24Leader vs bottom 3
30084.9%1.18Galatasaray vs Eyüpspor

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

147715341592
GalatasarayAmedTrabzonsporBeşiktaşKasımpaşaFenerbahçe

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#TeamEloPeakΔGPWDL
1Galatasaray15821582+829711
2Amed15641564+649621
3Trabzonspor15621562+629612
4Beşiktaş15401542+409603
5Kasımpaşa15391539+399441
6Fenerbahçe15341546+349513
7Erzurumspor FK15201520+209423
8Kocaelispor15171531+179504
9Göztepe15131513+139333
10Çorum15041518+49414
11Alanyaspor14961534-49333
12İstanbul Başakşehir14861513-149324
13Rizespor14691519-319315
14Konyaspor14641500-369225
15Gençlerbirliği14501532-509225
16Gaziantep FK14481516-529225
17Samsunspor14141517-869117
18Eyüpspor13991500-1019108

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

StrategyBetsWinsWin %P&LROITrend
Elo Value (edge > 3%)511631%+$42.50+8.33%
Elo Favourite633352%+$35.50+5.63%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)3267%+$10.50+35%
Elo Draw (>28%)21419%−$64.20-30.57%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

StrategyBetsFlat P&LFlat ROIKelly ¼ P&LKelly ¼ ROIConf P&LConf ROIComparison
Elo Value (edge > 3%)51+$42.50+8.33%−$30.64-11.27%+$80.48+16.96%
Elo Favourite63+$35.50+5.63%−$24.01-22.98%+$64.68+9.85%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)3+$10.50+35%$0.000%+$12.61+38.15%
Elo Draw (>28%)21−$64.20-30.57%−$1.84-100%−$58.96-28.15%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:
Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:
Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:
Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:
Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:
E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:
R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=32 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:
Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:
Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.