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NBA USA PREDICTIONS

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+12.84%

Best: Away Win

-28.41%

Worst: Home Win

Odds Range Filter

1.0

11.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for NBA Usa. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Win	44	21	47.73%	$440	$315	−$125.00	-28.41%	6	4
Away Win	44	23	52.27%	$440	$496.5	+$56.50	+12.84%	4	6
Favorite	44	28	63.64%	$440	$416.1	−$23.90	-5.43%	8	4
Underdog	44	17	38.64%	$440	$414.4	−$25.60	-5.82%	4	8

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Win	44	−$125.00	-28.41%	−$34.71	-100%	−$100.96	-22.13%
Away Win	44	+$56.50	+12.84%	−$27.55	-18.33%	+$86.04	+20.41%
Favorite	44	−$23.90	-5.43%	−$4.54	-9.85%	−$24.41	-5.23%
Underdog	44	−$25.60	-5.82%	−$51.02	-40.63%	+$4.07	+1.02%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Dallas Mavericks	3	2	66.67%	+$35.00	+116.67%
Philadelphia 76ers	2	2	100%	+$21.60	+108%
Memphis Grizzlies	4	4	100%	+$37.60	+94%
Minnesota Timberwolves	3	3	100%	+$27.10	+90.33%
Houston Rockets	3	3	100%	+$23.60	+78.67%
Portland Trail Blazers	3	3	100%	+$21.60	+72%
Oklahoma City Thunder	3	3	100%	+$14.30	+47.67%
Charlotte Hornets	3	2	66.67%	+$9.80	+32.67%
Atlanta Hawks	3	2	66.67%	+$9.40	+31.33%
Detroit Pistons	3	2	66.67%	+$9.00	+30%
Orlando Magic	3	1	33.33%	+$5.00	+16.67%
Golden State Warriors	3	1	33.33%	+$4.00	+13.33%
Los Angeles Lakers	4	3	75%	+$0.90	+2.25%
Boston Celtics	4	3	75%	+$0.50	+1.25%
Indiana Pacers	3	2	66.67%	$0.00	0%
Toronto Raptors	3	2	66.67%	−$3.40	-11.33%
Chicago Bulls	3	1	33.33%	−$10.30	-34.33%
Washington Wizards	3	1	33.33%	−$14.60	-48.67%
Los Angeles Clippers	3	1	33.33%	−$15.00	-50%
Utah Jazz	4	1	25%	−$21.30	-53.25%
New York Knicks	4	1	25%	−$23.80	-59.5%
San Antonio Spurs	3	1	33.33%	−$19.50	-65%
Phoenix Suns	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Cleveland Cavaliers	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%
Milwaukee Bucks	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
New Orleans Pelicans	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Miami Heat	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Sacramento Kings	4	0	0%	−$40.00	-100%
Denver Nuggets	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Brooklyn Nets	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

0.5

League Avg PPG

1.06

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

11.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for NBA Usa. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI	Trend
Home Win	13	6	46.15%	−$28.10	-21.62%
Away Win	26	13	50%	+$52.00	+20%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI	Comparison
Home Win	13	−$28.10	-21.62%	−$6.29	-4.84%	−$2.67	-2.05%
Away Win	26	+$52.00	+20%	+$6.31	+2.43%	+$3.13	+1.2%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
28 Oct	Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers	Los Angeles Lakers	58.26%	1.72	129 – 136	✗
28 Oct	New York Knicks vs Detroit Pistons	Detroit Pistons	70.85%	1.41	111 – 97	✗
28 Oct	San Antonio Spurs vs Sacramento Kings	San Antonio Spurs	84.18%	1.19	130 – 103	✓
27 Oct	Boston Celtics vs Brooklyn Nets	Boston Celtics	89.9%	1.11	125 – 124	✓
27 Oct	Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors	Denver Nuggets	76.98%	1.3	114 – 134	✗

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
28 Oct	Detroit Pistons vs Charlotte Hornets	Detroit Pistons	53%	1.89
28 Oct	Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards	***	0%	0
28 Oct	Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
28 Oct	Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers
28 Oct	Toronto Raptors vs Orlando Magic

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Houston Rockets	1	1	1	1	+0.50
2Oklahoma City Thunder	1	1	1	1	+0.50
3Memphis Grizzlies	1	1	1	1	+0.50
4Portland Trail Blazers	1	1	1	1	+0.50
5Los Angeles Lakers	0.75	0.67	1	0.69	+0.25
6Boston Celtics	0.75	1	0	0.81	+0.25
7Charlotte Hornets	0.75	0.67	1	0.77	+0.25
8Minnesota Timberwolves	0.75	1	0.67	0.69	+0.25
9Detroit Pistons	0.75	1	0.67	0.69	+0.25
10Philadelphia 76ers	0.75	0.67	1	0.69	+0.25
11Cleveland Cavaliers	0.67	1	0	0.72	+0.17
12Toronto Raptors	0.67	1	0.5	0.61	+0.17
13Atlanta Hawks	0.5	0	0.67	0.42	0.00
14Dallas Mavericks	0.5	0	0.67	0.54	0.00
15San Antonio Spurs	0.5	0.33	1	0.58	0.00
16Washington Wizards	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.46	0.00
17Indiana Pacers	0.5	0	0.67	0.46	0.00
18Phoenix Suns	0.33	1	0	0.33	-0.17
19Orlando Magic	0.33	0	1	0.39	-0.17
20Los Angeles Clippers	0.33	1	0	0.28	-0.17
21Denver Nuggets	0.33	0.5	0	0.33	-0.17
22Golden State Warriors	0.25	0	0.33	0.31	-0.25
23Utah Jazz	0.25	0.33	0	0.23	-0.25
24Milwaukee Bucks	0.25	0.5	0	0.31	-0.25
25Chicago Bulls	0.25	0	0.33	0.23	-0.25
26New York Knicks	0.25	0.33	0	0.31	-0.25
27New Orleans Pelicans	0	0	0	0	-0.50
28Miami Heat	0	0	0	0	-0.50
29Sacramento Kings	0	0	0	0	-0.50
30Brooklyn Nets	0	0	0	0	-0.50

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Atlanta Hawks

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.42Gap: ↓ 0.08

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

San Antonio Spurs

PPG: 0.5WPPG: 0.58Gap: ↑ 0.08

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Los Angeles Lakers

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.69Gap: ↓ 0.06

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Boston Celtics

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.81Gap: ↑ 0.06

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Minnesota Timberwolves

PPG: 0.75WPPG: 0.69Gap: ↓ 0.06

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers

P(Los Angeles Lakers) = 83 / (83+68) × 1.06

= 0.550 × 1.06 = 83% → Fair odds 1.72

P(Portland Trail Blazers) = 1 − 83%

= 68% → Fair odds 2.4

Points Model

Select Match

108.04

Home xPts (λ)

108.58

Away xPts (λ)

216.62

Total E[pts]

115.61

League Avg Home

114.25

League Avg Away

Derived Markets

Home Win

47.18%

Fair odds: 2.12

Away Win

50.11%

Fair odds: 2

Over 190.596.2%/ Under 3.8%Fair: 1.04

Over 200.586.33%/ Under 13.67%Fair: 1.16

Over 210.566.12%/ Under 33.88%Fair: 1.51

Over 220.539.6%/ Under 60.4%Fair: 2.53

Over 230.517.28%/ Under 82.72%Fair: 5.79

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Los Angeles Lakers	1.1	1.04	1.16	1.06	3	1
Boston Celtics	1.06	0.95	0.99	1.05	3	1
Phoenix Suns	1.13	1.07	0.86	1.08	1	2
Orlando Magic	0.94	1.08	0.97	0.88	2	1
Los Angeles Clippers	1.05	0.84	0.95	1.01	1	2
Golden State Warriors	0.93	0.97	1.05	1.07	1	3
Utah Jazz	1	1.05	0.9	1.06	3	1
Atlanta Hawks	0.99	1.06	1.08	0.94	1	3
Cleveland Cavaliers	1.09	1.08	0.93	0.99	2	1
Milwaukee Bucks	1.02	1.02	1.02	1.1	2	2
Charlotte Hornets	0.88	0.99	0.96	0.89	3	1
Chicago Bulls	1.04	1.09	0.94	1.14	1	3
Dallas Mavericks	0.92	1.07	1	0.99	1	3
San Antonio Spurs	0.99	0.97	1.07	0.92	3	1
Houston Rockets	1.07	0.96	1.03	0.97	2	2
New Orleans Pelicans	1.04	1.08	1.11	1.13	1	2
Miami Heat	0.94	1.09	0.96	0.99	3	1
Minnesota Timberwolves	1.01	0.82	1.08	0.94	1	3
Detroit Pistons	1.05	0.99	0.97	0.91	1	3
Oklahoma City Thunder	0.95	0.87	1.02	0.9	3	1
Memphis Grizzlies	1.06	0.9	1	0.94	1	3
Philadelphia 76ers	0.96	0.96	0.93	0.86	3	1
Toronto Raptors	1.17	0.81	0.9	0.95	1	2
New York Knicks	0.9	0.92	0.9	0.93	3	1
Washington Wizards	0.99	1	0.99	0.99	2	2
Indiana Pacers	0.91	1.06	1.05	0.98	1	3
Sacramento Kings	1	1.1	0.87	1.09	2	2
Denver Nuggets	1.1	1.18	0.74	0.83	2	1
Portland Trail Blazers	1.07	0.73	1.16	1.08	1	2
Brooklyn Nets	0.92	1.08	1.07	1.08	2	2

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 20. Home advantage: +100 Elo.

1Memphis Grizzlies

1543

2Houston Rockets

1539

3Oklahoma City Thunder

1533

4Portland Trail Blazers

1533

5Minnesota Timberwolves

1524

6Detroit Pistons

1523

7Los Angeles Lakers

1514

8Charlotte Hornets

1514

9Boston Celtics

1513

10Toronto Raptors

1513

11Philadelphia 76ers

1513

12Cleveland Cavaliers

1508

13Atlanta Hawks

1506

14Dallas Mavericks

1505

15Indiana Pacers

1504

16Washington Wizards

1500

17San Antonio Spurs

1495

18Los Angeles Clippers

1493

19Phoenix Suns

1493

20Orlando Magic

1488

21Golden State Warriors

1487

22Denver Nuggets

1487

23Chicago Bulls

1486

24Milwaukee Bucks

1482

25New York Knicks

1476

26Utah Jazz

1476

27New Orleans Pelicans

1473

28Sacramento Kings

1462

29Brooklyn Nets

1462

30Miami Heat

1456

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Mid vs mid-lower
100	64.0%	1.56	Top-8 vs bottom-8
150	70.3%	1.42	Top-4 vs bottom half
200	76.0%	1.32	Leader vs bottom half
250	80.8%	1.24	Leader vs bottom 3
300	84.9%	1.18	Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Memphis GrizzliesHouston RocketsOklahoma City ThunderPortland Trail BlazersMinnesota TimberwolvesDetroit Pistons

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	L
1	Memphis Grizzlies	1543	1543	+43	4	4	0
2	Houston Rockets	1539	1539	+39	4	4	0
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	1533	1533	+33	4	4	0
4	Portland Trail Blazers	1533	1533	+33	3	3	0
5	Minnesota Timberwolves	1524	1532	+24	4	3	1
6	Detroit Pistons	1523	1532	+23	4	3	1
7	Los Angeles Lakers	1514	1527	+14	4	3	1
8	Charlotte Hornets	1514	1514	+14	4	3	1
9	Boston Celtics	1513	1513	+13	4	3	1
10	Toronto Raptors	1513	1520	+13	3	2	1
11	Philadelphia 76ers	1513	1526	+13	4	3	1
12	Cleveland Cavaliers	1508	1508	+8	3	2	1
13	Atlanta Hawks	1506	1526	+6	4	2	2
14	Dallas Mavericks	1505	1506	+5	4	2	2
15	Indiana Pacers	1504	1513	+4	4	2	2
16	Washington Wizards	1500	1508	+0	4	2	2
17	San Antonio Spurs	1495	1500	-5	4	2	2
18	Los Angeles Clippers	1493	1507	-7	3	1	2
19	Phoenix Suns	1493	1500	-7	3	1	2
20	Orlando Magic	1488	1500	-12	3	1	2
21	Golden State Warriors	1487	1500	-13	4	1	3
22	Denver Nuggets	1487	1500	-13	3	1	2
23	Chicago Bulls	1486	1506	-15	4	1	3
24	Milwaukee Bucks	1482	1500	-18	4	1	3
25	New York Knicks	1476	1500	-24	4	1	3
26	Utah Jazz	1476	1500	-24	4	1	3
27	New Orleans Pelicans	1473	1500	-27	3	0	3
28	Sacramento Kings	1462	1500	-38	4	0	4
29	Brooklyn Nets	1462	1500	-38	4	0	4
30	Miami Heat	1456	1500	-44	4	0	4

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	14	5	36%	+$2.90	+2.07%
Elo Favourite	16	8	50%	−$48.00	-30%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	15	7	47%	−$54.20	-36.13%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	14	+$2.90	+2.07%	−$6.38	-16.13%	+$7.17	+5.11%
Elo Favourite	16	−$48.00	-30%	$0.00	0%	−$44.28	-22.19%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	15	−$54.20	-36.13%	$0.00	0%	−$50.01	-26.29%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=20 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +100 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

1Value bets found

1Multi-model consensus

+4.3%Avg EV found

Consensus across 2 models · Odds: H 2.07 · A 1.78

Home Win

52.6%

Mkt implied: 48.3%

EV +4.3%

Away Win

47.4%

Mkt implied: 56.2%

EV -8.8%

Win%: H 42% A 58%Elo: H 63% A 37%

NBA USA PREDICTIONS

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Los Angeles Lakers vs Portland Trail Blazers

Points Model

Select Match

Derived Markets

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently