MLB USA Predictions
2026Flat Betting Model
Odds Range Filter
Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for MLB USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.
Market ROI Summary
Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.
| Market | Bets | Wins | Win % | Staked | Return | P&L | ROI | Best Str. | Worst Str. | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 14 | 8 | 57.14% | $140 | $154.7 | +$14.70 | +10.5% | 3 | 3 | |
| Away Win | 14 | 6 | 42.86% | $140 | $138.2 | −$1.80 | -1.29% | 3 | 3 | |
| Favorite | 14 | 6 | 42.86% | $140 | $109.4 | −$30.60 | -21.86% | 4 | 3 | |
| Underdog | 14 | 7 | 50% | $140 | $164.5 | +$24.50 | +17.5% | 2 | 4 |
Staking Plan Comparison
Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).
| Market | Bets | Flat P&L | Flat ROI | Kelly ¼ P&L | Kelly ¼ ROI | Conf P&L | Conf ROI | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 14 | +$14.70 | +10.5% | −$3.61 | -18.27% | +$8.21 | +5.8% | |
| Away Win | 14 | −$1.80 | -1.29% | −$11.29 | -100% | −$6.37 | -4.72% | |
| Favorite | 14 | −$30.60 | -21.86% | $0.00 | 0% | −$33.26 | -23.69% | |
| Underdog | 14 | +$24.50 | +17.5% | −$13.67 | -39.87% | +$19.83 | +14.61% |
Staking Methods
- Flat Stake:
- Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
- Kelly ¼:
- Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
- Confidence-weighted:
- Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.
PPG Model
Odds Range Filter
Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for MLB USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.
PPG / WPPG Betting ROI
Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Win % | P&L | ROI | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 7 | 5 | 71.43% | +$28.20 | +40.29% | |
| Away Win | 8 | 4 | 50% | +$17.20 | +21.5% |
Strategy Guide
- PPG Favorite:
- Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
- PPG Home Pick:
- Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
- PPG Away Pick:
- Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
- WPPG Favorite:
- Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
- PPG Value:
- Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.
Staking Plan Comparison
Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.
| Strategy | Bets | Flat P&L | Flat ROI | Kelly ¼ P&L | Kelly ¼ ROI | Conf P&L | Conf ROI | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 7 | +$28.20 | +40.29% | +$1.80 | +2.57% | +$0.70 | +1% | |
| Away Win | 8 | +$17.20 | +21.5% | +$8.17 | +10.21% | +$2.91 | +3.63% |
Staking Methods
- Flat Stake:
- Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
- Kelly ¼:
- Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
- Confidence-weighted:
- Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.
Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual
How PPG predictions compared to actual match results
| Date | Match | PPG Pick | Prob | Fair Odds | Result | ✓ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 68.22% | 1.47 | 4 – 3 | ✗ |
| 27 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 65.33% | 1.53 | 1 – 10 | ✓ |
| 25 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.48% | 1.55 | 5 – 4 | ✓ |
| 24 Oct | Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.75% | 1.7 | 3 – 2 | ✓ |
| 20 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.85% | 1.79 | 7 – 3 | ✓ |
Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions
Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings
| Date | Match | PPG Pick | Prob | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct | Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.32% | 1.6 |
PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence
Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift
Worked Example — Tampa Bay Rays vs Milwaukee Brewers
Poisson / Correct Score
Select Match
Derived Markets
How Poisson Predictions Work
- Step 1 — Expected Goals:
- Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
- Step 2 — Poisson Formula:
- P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
- Step 3 — Score Matrix:
- Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
- Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:
- Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
- Step 5 — Derive Markets:
- Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.
Elo Rating
Current Elo Ratings
All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 20. Home advantage: +65 Elo.
Elo → Win Probability Table
How Elo difference translates to win probability.
| Elo Diff | P(Higher wins) | Fair Odds | Typical Matchup |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50.0% | 2.00 | Evenly matched |
| 50 | 57.1% | 1.75 | Playoff vs non-playoff |
| 100 | 64.0% | 1.56 | Division leader vs mid |
| 150 | 70.3% | 1.42 | AL/NL top vs bottom |
| 200 | 76.0% | 1.32 | Best vs worst division |
| 250 | 80.8% | 1.24 | World Series contender vs bottom |
| 300 | 84.9% | 1.18 | Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers |
Elo Rating History — Top 6
How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.
Elo Betting ROI
Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.
| Strategy | Bets | Wins | Win % | P&L | ROI | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo Value (edge > 3%) | 8 | 6 | 75% | +$49.10 | +61.38% | |
| Elo Favourite | 10 | 4 | 40% | −$28.90 | -28.9% | |
| Elo Home Pick (>55%) | 6 | 4 | 67% | +$11.10 | +18.5% | |
| Elo Away Pick (>50%) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −$10.00 | -100% |
Staking Plan Comparison
Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.
| Strategy | Bets | Flat P&L | Flat ROI | Kelly ¼ P&L | Kelly ¼ ROI | Conf P&L | Conf ROI | Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo Value (edge > 3%) | 8 | +$49.10 | +61.38% | +$25.51 | +109.06% | +$50.44 | +58.06% | |
| Elo Favourite | 10 | −$28.90 | -28.9% | $0.00 | 0% | −$25.95 | -26.92% | |
| Elo Home Pick (>55%) | 6 | +$11.10 | +18.5% | +$3.65 | +91.02% | +$14.57 | +23.85% | |
| Elo Away Pick (>50%) | 1 | −$10.00 | -100% | $0.00 | 0% | −$10.00 | -100% |
Staking Methods
- Flat Stake:
- Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
- Kelly ¼:
- Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
- Confidence-weighted:
- Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.
How Elo Ratings Work
- Step 1 — Starting Rating:
- Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
- Step 2 — Expected Score:
- E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
- Step 3 — Update After Match:
- R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=20 controls sensitivity.
- Step 4 — Home Advantage:
- Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
- Step 5 — Betting:
- Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.
Value Scanner
No upcoming matches with odds available. Please check back later.