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NFL USA Prediction Models

2026/2027

Flat Betting Model

Matches w/ Odds

$10

Stake Per Bet

+32.02%

Best: Away Win

-36.4%

Worst: Home Win

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the Flat Betting football prediction model for NFL USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

Market ROI Summary

Flat $10 stake on every match from start to end of season. Profit/loss and ROI per market.

Market	Bets	Wins	Win %	Staked	Return	P&L	ROI	Best Str.	Worst Str.
Home Win	42	16	38.1%	$420	$267.1	−$152.90	-36.4%	4	5
Away Win	42	25	59.52%	$420	$554.5	+$134.50	+32.02%	5	4
Favorite	42	28	66.67%	$420	$429.3	+$9.30	+2.21%	7	5
Underdog	42	13	30.95%	$420	$392.3	−$27.70	-6.6%	5	7

Staking Plan Comparison

Same bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate (quarter-Kelly for safety). Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability (more on favorites, less on longshots).

Market	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Home Win	42	−$152.90	-36.4%	−$28.66	-100%	−$135.27	-32.13%
Away Win	42	+$134.50	+32.02%	+$149.00	+53.94%	+$76.83	+17.68%
Favorite	42	+$9.30	+2.21%	+$1.12	+1.15%	+$2.10	+0.51%
Underdog	42	−$27.70	-6.6%	+$41.55	+151.42%	−$87.69	-20.16%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

Flat $10 on this team's Win result in every match. Sorted by ROI.

Team	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Arizona Cardinals	3	1	33.33%	+$40.00	+133.33%
Buffalo Bills	2	2	100%	+$18.90	+94.5%
Denver Broncos	3	3	100%	+$21.50	+71.67%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	3	100%	+$19.90	+66.33%
New York Giants	3	1	33.33%	+$19.00	+63.33%
Minnesota Vikings	2	2	100%	+$10.60	+53%
Cincinnati Bengals	2	2	100%	+$9.10	+45.5%
Detroit Lions	2	2	100%	+$9.10	+45.5%
Cleveland Browns	3	2	66.67%	+$12.10	+40.33%
Miami Dolphins	2	1	50%	+$8.00	+40%
Green Bay Packers	3	2	66.67%	+$8.90	+29.67%
San Francisco 49ers	3	2	66.67%	+$6.80	+22.67%
Tennessee Titans	3	1	33.33%	+$6.50	+21.67%
Houston Texans	3	2	66.67%	+$5.20	+17.33%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	1	50%	+$3.40	+17%
Chicago Bears	3	2	66.67%	+$4.50	+15%
New England Patriots	3	2	66.67%	−$2.00	-6.67%
Baltimore Ravens	3	1	33.33%	−$5.30	-17.67%
Carolina Panthers	2	1	50%	−$4.10	-20.5%
Atlanta Falcons	3	1	33.33%	−$7.90	-26.33%
Dallas Cowboys	2	1	50%	−$5.70	-28.5%
New Orleans Saints	3	1	33.33%	−$11.00	-36.67%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2	1	50%	−$7.70	-38.5%
Kansas City Chiefs	2	1	50%	−$7.70	-38.5%
New York Jets	3	1	33.33%	−$12.80	-42.67%
Seattle Seahawks	3	1	33.33%	−$13.50	-45%
Los Angeles Rams	3	1	33.33%	−$14.20	-47.33%
Philadelphia Eagles	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Los Angeles Chargers	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%
Indianapolis Colts	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Las Vegas Raiders	3	0	0%	−$30.00	-100%
Washington Commanders	2	0	0%	−$20.00	-100%

PPG Model

Teams

0.5

League Avg PPG

1.04

Home Factor

λ=0.85

WPPG Decay

Odds Range Filter

1.0

10.0

Use minimum and maximum odds selection tool to identify the most profitable ranges for the PPG football prediction model for NFL USA. After each change on the odds range, the system filters qualifying bets and recalculates profits and losses based on those selections.

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Backtested ROI betting $10 using incremental PPG — seeded with previous season data, blending into current-season results.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI	Trend
Home Win	17	5	29.41%	−$79.50	-46.76%
Away Win	24	12	50%	+$104.20	+43.42%

Strategy Guide

PPG Favorite:: Backs the team with the higher PPG to win, whether home or away.
PPG Home Pick:: Bets on the home team only when PPG rates them higher than the visitor.
PPG Away Pick:: Bets on the away team only when PPG rates them higher than the home side.
WPPG Favorite:: Same as PPG Favorite but uses Weighted PPG (recent form weighted more heavily).
PPG Value:: Only bets when the PPG fair odds are lower than the bookmaker's odds — positive expected value. E.g. fair odds 1.80 vs bookmaker 2.10 = value bet.

Staking Plan Comparison

Same PPG bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ = stake based on rolling edge estimate. Confidence = stake proportional to implied probability.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI	Comparison
Home Win	17	−$79.50	-46.76%	−$22.26	-13.09%	−$8.90	-5.24%
Away Win	24	+$104.20	+43.42%	+$28.84	+12.02%	+$11.48	+4.78%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses previous bets' average — applicable in real time.

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

How PPG predictions compared to actual match results

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds	Result	✓
27 Oct	Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys	Philadelphia Eagles	52%	1.92	21 – 38	✗
26 Oct	Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs	Kansas City Chiefs	65.33%	1.53	20 – 3	✗
25 Oct	Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Rams	Las Vegas Raiders	65.82%	1.52	21 – 35	✗
25 Oct	Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers	Green Bay Packers	50.87%	1.97	20 – 17	✗
25 Oct	Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos	Denver Broncos	65.68%	1.52	16 – 30	✓

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

Win probabilities for upcoming matches based on current PPG ratings

Date	Match	PPG Pick	Prob	Fair Odds
16 Oct	Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks	Denver Broncos	57.69%	1.73
19 Oct	Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys	***	0%	0
20 Oct	San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders	🔒 Login or register for free to see predictions data.
22 Oct	Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots
25 Oct	Seattle Seahawks vs Kansas City Chiefs

PPG Ratings — All Teams

Points Per Game overall, home, away, and weighted (WPPG with λ=0.85 decay). Click column headers to sort.

Team	PPG ↓	H-PPG	A-PPG	WPPG	vs Avg
1Minnesota Vikings	1	1	1	1	+0.50
2San Francisco 49ers	0.86	1	0.67	0.78	+0.36
3Buffalo Bills	0.86	0.67	1	0.86	+0.36
4Kansas City Chiefs	0.83	1	0.67	0.76	+0.33
5Pittsburgh Steelers	0.71	1	0.5	0.77	+0.21
6Cleveland Browns	0.71	1	0.5	0.76	+0.21
7Chicago Bears	0.71	0.75	0.67	0.74	+0.21
8New York Giants	0.71	0.75	0.67	0.71	+0.21
9Denver Broncos	0.71	1	0.5	0.78	+0.21
10Jacksonville Jaguars	0.67	0.75	0.5	0.63	+0.17
11Detroit Lions	0.67	1	0.33	0.7	+0.17
12Cincinnati Bengals	0.67	0.5	0.75	0.68	+0.17
13Baltimore Ravens	0.63	0.33	0.8	0.54	+0.13
14Seattle Seahawks	0.57	0.75	0.33	0.54	+0.07
15New England Patriots	0.57	1	0.25	0.58	+0.07
16Green Bay Packers	0.57	0.67	0.5	0.58	+0.07
17Carolina Panthers	0.5	0.33	0.67	0.5	0.00
18Las Vegas Raiders	0.43	0.25	0.67	0.3	-0.07
19Dallas Cowboys	0.43	0.33	0.5	0.45	-0.07
20Los Angeles Rams	0.38	0.2	0.67	0.39	-0.12
21Atlanta Falcons	0.38	0.2	0.67	0.41	-0.12
22New York Jets	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.24	-0.21
23Houston Texans	0.29	0	0.67	0.35	-0.21
24New Orleans Saints	0.29	0	0.67	0.29	-0.21
25Indianapolis Colts	0.29	0.33	0.25	0.25	-0.21
26Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.29	0	0.67	0.38	-0.21
27Arizona Cardinals	0.29	0	0.5	0.27	-0.21
28Philadelphia Eagles	0.29	0.25	0.33	0.18	-0.21
29Miami Dolphins	0.17	0	0.25	0.24	-0.33
30Washington Commanders	0.17	0.33	0	0.15	-0.33
31Tennessee Titans	0.14	0	0.33	0.19	-0.36
32Los Angeles Chargers	0	0	0	0	-0.50

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Teams where PPG and Weighted PPG disagree most — indicates recent form shift

Las Vegas Raiders

PPG: 0.43WPPG: 0.3Gap: ↓ 0.13

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Philadelphia Eagles

PPG: 0.29WPPG: 0.18Gap: ↓ 0.11

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PPG: 0.29WPPG: 0.38Gap: ↑ 0.09

Recent form better than season average — WPPG rising

Baltimore Ravens

PPG: 0.63WPPG: 0.54Gap: ↓ 0.09

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

San Francisco 49ers

PPG: 0.86WPPG: 0.78Gap: ↓ 0.08

Recent form declining — WPPG dropping below season PPG

Worked Example — Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

P(Philadelphia Eagles) = 33 / (33+33) × 1.04

= 0.500 × 1.04 = 33% → Fair odds 1.92

P(Dallas Cowboys) = 1 − 33%

= 33% → Fair odds 2.08

Points Model

Select Match

18.6

Home xPts (λ)

Away xPts (λ)

37.60

Total E[pts]

22.87

League Avg Home

23.46

League Avg Away

Derived Markets

Home Win

44.17%

Fair odds: 2.26

Away Win

49.35%

Fair odds: 2.03

Over 37.550.65%/ Under 49.35%Fair: 1.97

Over 41.526.24%/ Under 73.76%Fair: 3.81

Over 45.59.88%/ Under 90.12%Fair: 10.12

Over 49.52.61%/ Under 97.39%Fair: 38.24

Over 53.50.48%/ Under 99.52%Fair: 210.21

Team Attack & Defense Strength

Attack/defense strength relative to league average (1.00 = average). Used to derive expected goals (xG) for each match.

Team	Att (H)	Def (H)	Att (A)	Def (A)	H GP	A GP
Seattle Seahawks	1.01	0.72	1.08	0.83	4	3
New England Patriots	1.33	0.55	0.74	1.14	3	4
Los Angeles Rams	1.04	1.07	1.21	1.03	5	3
San Francisco 49ers	1.29	0.79	1.12	0.95	4	3
Tennessee Titans	0.62	1.07	0.72	0.82	4	3
New York Jets	0.86	0.85	0.83	0.98	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.22	0.88	0.74	0.83	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	0.88	1.24	1.32	0.85	5	3
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.3	0.71	0.75	0.81	4	2
Cleveland Browns	0.89	0.74	0.77	1.03	3	4
Houston Texans	0.96	1.25	1.09	0.77	4	3
Buffalo Bills	1.33	1.08	1.52	1.41	3	4
Detroit Lions	1.2	1.01	1.45	1.37	3	3
New Orleans Saints	0.81	1.27	1.25	1.09	4	3
Carolina Panthers	1.2	1.82	1.09	0.55	3	3
Chicago Bears	0.91	0.55	1.38	1.33	4	3
Indianapolis Colts	0.9	1.19	0.98	1.05	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	0.79	1.09	1.24	0.99	3	5
Cincinnati Bengals	1.09	1.04	1.2	0.8	2	4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.74	0.95	1.34	0.9	4	3
Minnesota Vikings	1.02	0.6	0.78	0.47	3	3
Green Bay Packers	0.99	0.78	0.81	0.98	3	4
Los Angeles Chargers	0.66	1.07	0.64	1.11	3	3
Arizona Cardinals	0.64	1.51	1.04	1.11	3	4
Las Vegas Raiders	1.15	1.18	1.11	1.25	4	3
Miami Dolphins	0.74	1.17	0.68	1.11	2	4
Philadelphia Eagles	0.86	1.16	0.68	0.96	4	3
Washington Commanders	1.06	1.25	0.84	1.22	3	3
New York Giants	1.13	0.91	0.85	1.11	4	3
Dallas Cowboys	1.22	1.11	1.12	1.11	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	1.25	0.65	0.81	0.83	3	3
Denver Broncos	0.98	0.75	0.82	0.96	3	4

How Poisson Predictions Work

Step 1 — Expected Goals:: Home xG = Home Attack Strength × Away Defense Weakness × League Avg Home Goals. Each team's attack and defense ratings are calculated relative to the league average.
Step 2 — Poisson Formula:: P(k goals) = e⁻λ × λᵏ / k! — models the probability of scoring exactly k goals given the expected goals (λ).
Step 3 — Score Matrix:: Multiply home and away goal probabilities for every combination (0-0 through 6-6) to build a full probability grid for every possible scoreline.
Step 4 — Dixon-Coles:: Apply ρ correction to fix Poisson's underestimation of low-scoring draws (0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-1). This is the key improvement over basic Poisson.
Step 5 — Derive Markets:: Sum probabilities from the matrix to derive 1X2, Over/Under, BTTS, and correct score probabilities — then convert to fair odds for value identification.

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

All teams ranked by Elo. Start rating: 1500. K-factor: 20. Home advantage: +65 Elo.

1Minnesota Vikings

1554

2Buffalo Bills

1548

3San Francisco 49ers

1542

4Kansas City Chiefs

1535

5Denver Broncos

1531

6Pittsburgh Steelers

1530

7Cleveland Browns

1530

8Chicago Bears

1527

9New York Giants

1523

10Cincinnati Bengals

1522

11Detroit Lions

1519

12Baltimore Ravens

1519

13Jacksonville Jaguars

1514

14New England Patriots

1513

15Green Bay Packers

1511

16Seattle Seahawks

1508

17Carolina Panthers

1499

18Dallas Cowboys

1491

19Las Vegas Raiders

1487

20Atlanta Falcons

1481

21Los Angeles Rams

1480

22Arizona Cardinals

1474

23Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1473

24New Orleans Saints

1473

25Indianapolis Colts

1473

26New York Jets

1473

27Houston Texans

1472

28Miami Dolphins

1468

29Philadelphia Eagles

1467

30Washington Commanders

1464

31Tennessee Titans

1453

32Los Angeles Chargers

1446

Elo → Win Probability Table

How Elo difference translates to win probability.

Elo Diff	P(Higher wins)	Fair Odds	Typical Matchup
0	50.0%	2.00	Evenly matched
50	57.1%	1.75	Playoff vs non-playoff
100	64.0%	1.56	Division leader vs mid
150	70.3%	1.42	Conference top vs bottom
200	76.0%	1.32	Best vs worst division
250	80.8%	1.24	Super Bowl contender vs bottom
300	84.9%	1.18	Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers

Elo Rating History — Top 6

How the top 6 teams' Elo ratings evolved across the season.

Minnesota VikingsBuffalo BillsSan Francisco 49ersKansas City ChiefsDenver BroncosPittsburgh Steelers

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Current Elo rating, peak Elo this season, and results. Start rating: 1500.

#	Team	Elo	Peak	Δ	GP	W	L
1	Minnesota Vikings	1554	1554	+54	6	6	0
2	Buffalo Bills	1548	1548	+48	7	6	1
3	San Francisco 49ers	1542	1552	+42	7	6	1
4	Kansas City Chiefs	1535	1545	+35	6	5	1
5	Denver Broncos	1531	1531	+31	7	5	2
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	1530	1530	+30	7	5	2
7	Cleveland Browns	1530	1530	+30	7	5	2
8	Chicago Bears	1527	1527	+27	7	5	2
9	New York Giants	1523	1526	+23	7	5	2
10	Cincinnati Bengals	1522	1522	+22	6	4	2
11	Detroit Lions	1519	1519	+19	6	4	2
12	Baltimore Ravens	1519	1541	+19	8	5	3
13	Jacksonville Jaguars	1514	1527	+14	6	4	2
14	New England Patriots	1513	1521	+13	7	4	3
15	Green Bay Packers	1511	1519	+11	7	4	3
16	Seattle Seahawks	1508	1520	+8	7	4	3
17	Carolina Panthers	1499	1512	-1	6	3	3
18	Dallas Cowboys	1491	1500	-9	7	3	4
19	Las Vegas Raiders	1487	1531	-13	7	3	4
20	Atlanta Falcons	1481	1504	-19	8	3	5
21	Los Angeles Rams	1480	1501	-20	8	3	5
22	Arizona Cardinals	1474	1512	-26	7	2	5
23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1473	1500	-27	7	2	5
24	New Orleans Saints	1473	1504	-27	7	2	5
25	Indianapolis Colts	1473	1501	-27	7	2	5
26	New York Jets	1473	1512	-27	7	2	5
27	Houston Texans	1472	1500	-28	7	2	5
28	Miami Dolphins	1468	1500	-32	6	1	5
29	Philadelphia Eagles	1467	1519	-33	7	2	5
30	Washington Commanders	1464	1500	-36	6	1	5
31	Tennessee Titans	1453	1500	-47	7	1	6
32	Los Angeles Chargers	1446	1500	-54	6	0	6

Elo Betting ROI

Backtested ROI using incremental Elo ratings — ratings computed from matches played before each bet.

Strategy	Bets	Wins	Win %	P&L	ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	36	9	25%	−$69.60	-19.33%
Elo Favourite	42	15	36%	−$175.00	-41.67%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	29	13	45%	−$78.70	-27.14%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	0	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Plan Comparison

Same Elo bets, different stake sizing. Flat = $10 every bet. Kelly ¼ and Confidence-weighted alternatives.

Strategy	Bets	Flat P&L	Flat ROI	Kelly ¼ P&L	Kelly ¼ ROI	Conf P&L	Conf ROI
Elo Value (edge > 3%)	36	−$69.60	-19.33%	+$26.60	+160.53%	−$134.58	-35.48%
Elo Favourite	42	−$175.00	-41.67%	−$27.21	-100%	−$155.08	-36.66%
Elo Home Pick (>55%)	29	−$78.70	-27.14%	−$29.68	-63.18%	−$71.04	-23.68%
Elo Away Pick (>50%)	1	−$10.00	-100%	$0.00	0%	−$10.00	-100%

Staking Methods

Flat Stake:: Fixed $10 on every qualifying bet regardless of odds or edge.
Kelly ¼:: Stake = bankroll × (edge / (odds−1)) / 4. Uses rolling win rate as probability estimate. Grows bankroll when winning, shrinks when losing.
Confidence-weighted:: Stake = (implied prob / rolling avg implied prob) × $10. Bets more on favorites, less on longshots. Uses your previous bets' average to calculate each stake — applicable in real time.

How Elo Ratings Work

Step 1 — Starting Rating:: Every team starts at 1500. Higher Elo means a stronger team.
Step 2 — Expected Score:: E(A) = 1 / (1 + 10^(R_B − R_A) / 400). If Arsenal is rated 1600 and Wolves is 1450, Arsenal's expected score is 0.71.
Step 3 — Update After Match:: R_new = R_old + K × (S − E), where S is the actual result (1 = win, 0.5 = draw, 0 = loss) and K=20 controls sensitivity.
Step 4 — Home Advantage:: Home team gets +65 Elo boost when calculating expected scores, reflecting the statistical home advantage in football.
Step 5 — Betting:: Convert Elo difference into win/draw/loss probabilities, compare against bookmaker odds, and bet when the model spots value.

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently

Min EV threshold2%

Show models

7Value bets found

7Multi-model consensus

+8.6%Avg EV found

Consensus across 2 models · Odds: H 1.50 · A 2.65

Home Win

58.1%

Mkt implied: 66.7%

EV -8.5%

Away Win

41.9%

Mkt implied: 37.7%

EV +4.1%

Win%: H 55% A 45%Elo: H 61% A 39%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Consensus across 0 model · Odds: H 0.00 · A 0.00

Home Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

Away Win

0.0%

Mkt implied: 0.0%

EV 0.0%

🔒

NFL USA Prediction Models

Flat Betting Model

Odds Range Filter

Market ROI Summary

Staking Plan Comparison

By Team Bets

PPG Model

Odds Range Filter

PPG / WPPG Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

Recent Results — PPG Predictions vs Actual

Upcoming Fixtures — PPG Predictions

PPG Ratings — All Teams

PPG vs WPPG — Biggest Divergence

Worked Example — Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Points Model

Select Match

Derived Markets

Team Attack & Defense Strength

How Poisson Predictions Work

Elo Rating

Current Elo Ratings

Elo → Win Probability Table

Elo Rating History — Top 6

Elo Ratings — All Teams

Elo Betting ROI

Staking Plan Comparison

How Elo Ratings Work

Value Scanner

Upcoming Fixtures — Value Identified by Each Model Independently